What I'm looking forward to in tech this year
- The digital living room. The connected and smart TVs were all the buzz at CES. From Samsung to Microsoft to Google to Roku and others. Yet I think hanging over the head of every announcement was Apple's long rumored TV. The rumors of an Apple TV have been in overdrive ever since Steve Jobs said in an interview that he had "finally cracked it". Did he? Is Apple going to "pull an iPhone" on the cable industry?
- The mobile wallet. The idea that we might be able to use our mobile phones to pay for things offline makes sense. Imagine for a second using your phone to pay for things in stores, coffee shops, taxis, BART, etc. Merging the phone and wallet into one thing seems like a no-brainer. And it’s been happening in places like Japan for years. Will we in the U.S. finally be able to? It's going to take a leader to sort through a lot of mess. To make it happen involves a lot of moving pieces from the handset makers to wireless carriers to banks and credit card companies and finally the retail merchants themselves. Can Google do it with Google Wallet? Will Square try something to push the envelope?
- The connected car. Knowing the glacial pace of automotive development, I have been surprised by how quickly automakers have been embracing new technologies in recent years. The dream of a connected car is getting closer to a reality. The announcements out of this year's CES were many: Ford with updates to their Sync Applink, Toytota with Entune, and new releases from Kia, Hyundai and GM. Virtually every car maker is coming on board with new, connected systems after hearing the feedback and demand from consumers. But can the automakers bring the connected car to the masses and not just the high-end, luxury drivers? And can they do so in a simple, safe and easy-to-use way?
- Microsoft & Mobile. Microsoft has been astonishingly late to the mobile party with Windows Phone. Laughably late really. Still dominant in PCs, Microsoft is basically nonexistent in mobile smartphones and tablets ceding the crown to Apple and Google. However, Windows Phone has gotten some rave reviews recently. And through their partnership with Nokia, Microsoft would seem to have the distribution part. The flagship Windows Phone unveiled at CES, the Nokia Lumia 900, seems especially impressive. But does Windows Phone have what it takes to last? Can Microsoft woo app developers? Will it be a Zune (bust) or an XBOX 360 (hit) story for them?
Undoubtedly, these are are all wide open. There are certainly some big ones that I've missed. I mean who would have thought that Google would try to buy Motorola last year?
Some of these may take years to play out. As Bill Gates famously said,
We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.
Still, there should be significant progress for each of these this year. And it should make for a very exciting year.
